HANCOCK COUNTY — Most people who get COVID-19 will barely realize they have it or won’t even know they have it at all.
That makes it easy to dismiss.
But they can still spread it, and spread it to the minority for whom it’s a major problem.
If those who make up that minority need medical care at the same time, it creates another major problem — one that would overwhelm the health care system and could lead to a lot of deaths, local experts say.
Health leaders in Hancock County urge residents to maintain social distancing in an effort to stem the transmission of the virus. They say that strategy will let any serious cases accumulate gradually over a longer period of time, allowing the medical community to respond much more effectively.
That is at the heart of the local effort to combat spread of the novel coronavirus: Protect the frail, and protect the health care system.
Steve Long, president and CEO of Hancock Regional Hospital, said in a video on the hospital’s website posted this week that 80% of those who get COVID-19 won’t know they have it.
“They may just think they have a mild cold,” Long said. “In fact, it’s likely that many people that you know have had it.”
He added 14% of cases are severe.
“They’re going to need oxygen, so that likely means they’re going to be in a hospital,” he said.
Long said 5% are going to be critical, meaning ventilator care in an intensive care unit. He added 1% of cases will die.
Those most at risk of COVID-19 are 60 and older and those with preexisting conditions like chronic diseases.
Dr. Kristina Box, Indiana state health commissioner, has said about 1% of Indiana’s population is likely already infected with the virus. If 1% of Hancock County’s population had COVID-19, that’s about 800 people.
Applying the aforementioned percentages, that means about 640 people would be minimally affected. About 112 may require oxygen and about 40 would need a ventilator in an ICU.
Long said Hancock Regional Hospital has about 35 ventilators; about 80 inpatient rooms and about 100 outpatient spaces.
If just 5% of the county got COVID-19, that would mean 700 to 800 people would need to be hospitalized, Long said.
“My goodness,” he added, “if they all came in a matter of two or three weeks, there’s no way that we could handle that… This is why this is such an urgent, urgent problem. We would be overwhelmed if just 5% of the people in our county got it.”
Indianapolis and surrounding-area hospitals would be similarly pressed, Long said.
“Here’s the problem: we know these hospitals are full. It’s difficult for us to transfer into them already on a good day. They run at 85% to 90% capacity, and sometimes they run higher than that.”
There is not yet any treatment for COVID-19. The best course of action is prevention.
“What we’re trying to do here is say we may not be able to decrease the total number of people that get sick, but we can sure as heck try to spread that over as long of a period of time as we can so that we can keep the number of people at any given time from overwhelming us,” Long said. “Because if we get overwhelmed, people are going to die. We don’t want that to happen.”
That can be accomplished by minimizing contact with others through social distancing, he continued. COVID-19 is believed to spread in droplets of mucous expelled through coughs and sneezes, which have ranges of about 6 feet. People can maintain social distancing by remaining at home and when they do go out, keeping at least 6 feet from others.
On March 16, the White House announced a campaign called “15 Days to Slow the Spread,” which recommends guidelines encouraging Americans to stay home as much as possible and practice good hygiene.
“We believe there are two weeks to turn the tide so that we can really slow down the transmission of this disease,” Long said.
In order to ensure it works, people will need to go the distance at keeping their distance, however.
“I think that people can do this for a week or two,” Long said.
But if there isn’t an explosion of the disease in that time, people are going to likely want to get back to normal.
“And we can’t do it,” Long said. “We’re going to have four to six weeks after the next two weeks to keep it all up, to make sure it doesn’t come roaring right back.”
Long also made a plea to millennials in the video.
“You guys are not going to be all that affected by this,” he said. “You’re going to get a mild cold, if you get anything, but you’re going to have the disease. And if you go visit your parents, or your grandparents especially, then you are at high risk of transmitting the disease to them. You’re not even going to know you have it, and they have a very strong chance of dying.”
As of Thursday, there had yet to be any recorded positive cases of COVID-19 in Hancock County residents, according to the Indiana State Department of Health. A teacher at Greenfield-Central schools who is not a county resident has tested positive, however. That is the second case of person employed here but who lives elsewhere.
Craig Felty, vice president, chief nursing officer and chief operating officer of Hancock Regional Hospital, told the Daily Reporter Thursday that the hospital is awaiting COVID-19 test results for three patients.
“Our testing is focused mostly on people that are at risk and those that have severe symptoms,” Long said in the video. “It’s very difficult to get testing done, and it takes three to five days to get a result back if you can get it done. We’re very hopeful that additional tests are really becoming available, but we have not seen it as of yet.”
Felty agreed.
“As of right now we are only testing a select few and anybody that does not have symptoms is not going to be tested,” he said.
Hancock Regional Hospital has fewer than 100 COVID-19 tests, Felty said.
“We are extremely limited in the amount of testing that we can do,” he said, adding the hospital is conserving tests for those who are hospitalized. “…If you don’t have those (COVID-19) symptoms and even if you do but you’re not that bad, you very well probably will not get tested at this point in time.”
COVID-19 symptoms include a cough, fever and shortness of breath. If someone has any of those symptoms and isn’t tested, they should isolate themselves, Felty said. The CDC says those who are isolating themselves and not being tested can discontinue isolation after they’ve had no fever for at least 72 hours without the use of medicine that reduces fevers, and at least seven days after their first symptoms appeared.
Felty also said the hospital’s new COVID-19 triage clinic in Brandywine Plaza has been seeing 30 to 40 patients a day. Patients there are referred from screenings done over the hospital’s 24/7 COVID-19 hotline (317-325-2683), as well as referrals from other physician’s offices and immediate care centers. Patients will be seen by appointment only, with no walk-in treatment.
At the triage clinic, health care professionals ask patients about their travel histories and if they’ve been exposed to someone they know who has tested positive for the virus, Felty said. He added professionals are also looking for symptoms like coughs, fevers and shortness of breath before determining how to move forward.
In Long’s video, he said the coronavirus crisis often feels like “we’re in a movie.”
“I’m hopeful at some point that the movie ends, the credits roll, we get back to normal,” he said. “But until then, we’ve got some things that we need to get through.”
[sc:pullout-title pullout-title=”Learn more” ][sc:pullout-text-begin]
More information about the novel coronavirus is online at hancockregional.org/coronavirus. A link to videos is at the bottom of the page.
[sc:pullout-text-end][sc:pullout-title pullout-title=”At a glance” ][sc:pullout-text-begin]
COVID-19 symptoms
Reported illnesses have ranged from mild symptoms to severe illness and death for confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases.
The following symptoms may appear 2-14 days after exposure:
- Fever
- Cough
- Shortness of breath
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
[sc:pullout-text-end][sc:pullout-title pullout-title=”At a glance” ][sc:pullout-text-begin]
Stop the spread of germs
Help prevent the spread of respiratory diseases like COVID-19
- Avoid close contact with people who are sick
- Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash
- Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth
- Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces
- Stay home when you are sick, except to get medical care
- Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
[sc:pullout-text-end][sc:pullout-title pullout-title=”At a glance” ][sc:pullout-text-begin]
People who are at higher risk from severe illness
Some people may be at higher risk of getting very sick from COVID-19. This includes:
- Older adults
- People who have serious underlying medical conditions like:
- Heart disease
- Diabetes
- Lung disease
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
[sc:pullout-text-end][sc:pullout-title pullout-title=”By the numbers” ][sc:pullout-text-begin]
COVID-19 cases in the U.S. as of March 19
- Total cases: 10,442
- Total deaths: 150
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
[sc:pullout-text-end][sc:pullout-title pullout-title=”By the numbers” ][sc:pullout-text-begin]
Indiana COVID-19 data as of 11:59 p.m. March 18
Total positive cases: 56
Total deaths: 2
Total tested: 380
Cases by county of residence:
- Adams: 1
- Bartholomew: 1
- Boone: 1
- Clark: 1
- Fayette: 1
- Floyd: 1
- Franklin: 2
- Hamilton: 2
- Hendricks: 4
- Howard: 5
- Jennings: 1
- Johnson: 3 cases, 1 death
- Lake: 4
- LaPorte: 1
- Madison: 1
- Marion: 19 cases, 1 death
- Noble: 1
- Owen: 1
- St. Joseph: 3
- Tippecanoe: 1
- Wayne: 1
- Wells: 1
Source: Indiana State Department of Health
[sc:pullout-text-end]
