Michael Adkins
Nearly two months after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine we are learning a great deal about the man and his supporters. Those who viewed Putin as a man who wants to build an empire have been proven correct. Those who believed that the Russian military was a powerful juggernaut have been shown to be totally wrong. Those on the American Right who saw Putin as a conservative cultural icon, including Pat Buchanan and Rev. Franklin Graham, are now evidenced with his immorality; as if his numerous successful and failed assassination attempts were not enough to convince them otherwise. In fact, most Putin supporters in the conservative media, and yes, even in Congress, are now shifting their idolatry to Hungary’s autocrat, Viktor Orban. I would hope instead they favored the Ukrainian President Zelensky, who has shown a great love for his people, and admirable leadership. But we still have those crazies in Congress refusing to support aid to Ukraine and calling Zelensky crooked and a neo-Nazi. A Jewish neo-Nazi, can you imagine that?
As for the myth of Russia’s military might, we should not be all that surprised. The historical image of Russia’s military successes based on its successful defenses of Mother Russia during its brutal winters, not its invasions. The Ukraine invasion opened up for all to see, the ineptitude of Russia’s military and the lack of Putin’s “genius.” The Russian army had no central command structure until over a month into the incursion. It has been unable to adequately supply its troops. Many of its soldiers have simply surrendered or fled. That does not mean it can’t be successful. Putin still hopes to wear down the Ukrainian citizenry by raining down utter destruction upon them. It has called in foreign fighters and is conscripting hundreds of thousands of future soldiers.
We also know that Putin was woefully wrong on his assessment of America and its allies. After four years of weakening, NATO has been strengthened by its resistance to Putin. Rather than increasing his sphere of influence, the Russian autocrat is driving more of his neighbors into the western camp. Finland and Sweden are increasingly likely to join NATO. The latter has not even fought a war in over 200 years, such is the effect of Putin’s folly.
What we don’t yet know is the degree to which sanctions will be effective. President Biden immediately invoked sanctions against Russia, and our allies followed suit. Biden and our allies have continually increased those sanctions. Putin did admit in early April that the sanctions were disrupting his country’s exports and are raising costs to Russian goods.
Putin is learning the lesson of the fictional Lannisters in the Game of Thrones; borrowing is a must in war. When the Lannister’s famed source of gold dried up, they had to seek foreign investment and became dependent upon the Bank of Braavos. That was fiction, but the lesson is real. Russia defaulted on interest and principal payments of its foreign debts in early May. Since sanctions have severely limited its ability to pay back its debts in contracted dollars and euros, it has announced it will pay in Rubles. The problem is, foreign creditors, owners of half that debt, are unlikely to accept them. We know that at least half of its foreign creditors have already taken steps to use the seized Russian dollar assets in lieu of payment. Further evidence of the impact of sanctions is that the Russian economy has already shrunk 13%, wiping out 13 years of growth. What this means is that without a quick victory, Putin cannot maintain his offensive.
Michael Adkins formerly was chair of the Hancock County Democratic Party. Send comments to [email protected].
