This is a good time to look back at the 2020 presidential election and the succeeding 12 months. Here are my takeaways from the tumultuous events of the past year.
The first is important for Democratic and Republican parties alike. The 2020 election of Joe Biden was clearly a rejection of President Donald Trump far more than it was an acceptance of the Democratic Party. Though Trump lost by 7 million votes, The GOP made gains in the House and avoided a catastrophe in the Senate. Both of our major political parties need to accept that takeaway before entering the 2024 election cycle. For the Democratic Party, it means it must rely on more than anti-Trumpism if it desires control of Congress. For the GOP, it means their voters must consider the likelihood of a repeat of 2020 if they hope to regain the White House. A Trump candidacy will almost certainly mean another loss of the popular vote. Sure, Trump may be able to eke out a win in the Electoral College, but that is still quite a gamble.
My second takeaway is that Republican voters are unlikely to accept the previous premise. One year later, 59% of Republicans still believe the election was “stolen.” This is utterly confounding when you consider that as Trump never reached a 50% approval rating in any national poll. It is even more mind-blowing that these Republicans still cling to the stolen-election myth when you realize that 12 months after the election, Trump and his allies have never produced the first shred of evidence. I for one, am still awaiting Rudy Guiliani’s promised bombshell.
The GOP victory in Virginia this month is further evidence that Republican candidates can win without Donald Trump. In exit polling, 54% of the Virginia voters held an unfavorable view of the former president. And still the Republican candidate won. But when a vast majority of the party believes that the election was stolen from Trump, they are still likely to nominate him again.
My third takeaway is that the past year proves that reaching suburban voters is the key to political victory. Trump lost the suburban vote handily. Republican gubernatorial candidates in Virginia and New Jersey this month cut into the GOP’s suburban deficit and, therefore, did well in their bid for victory.
This is vitally important, as the greatest divide in the nation is between urban and rural America with the suburbs being the key to winning. Rural America is predominantly a GOP stronghold. Likewise, urban America is overwhelmingly Democratic. Such a divide holds advantages for each party. It’s an advantage for the GOP because more states hold rural majorities. Therefore, the party will always contend well for control of the Senate. It also means they will hold more state legislatures, which in turn allows for more advantageous redistricting of House seats for the GOP. The other side of the coin is that America’s majority resides in urban areas. That means it will continue to be difficult for Republicans to win the presidential popular vote without the Electoral College, unless they dominate the suburban vote.
My fourth takeaway is that America’s democratic processes are in danger. Nineteen states passed more restrictive voting laws — not, as they claim, to ensure trust in the voting, but to create a slight voting edge. Further troubling is that recent polling revealed that 30% of Republicans believe they may have to resort to violence in future elections. This means that a repeat of Jan. 6 remains a distinct possibility, and that bodes poorly for American democracy.
Michael Adkins formerly was chair of the Hancock County Democratic Party.
