Washington Examiner
Many will welcome the new United States-Taliban peace deal. They see a war that has lasted nearly 19 years, taken the lives of nearly 3,600; wounded tens of thousands more; and cost trillions of dollars. They see a Taliban force that remains strong, with significant territorial control and financial strength. They see, in short, a war that has lasted too long and doesn’t seem winnable.
The desire to get out of such a seemingly never-ending conflict is understandable, but we urge caution to our fellow citizens and President Trump. For all the failings and frustrations in Afghanistan since October 2001, the U.S. mission there has achieved some good things. This peace deal shouldn’t become an excuse to abandon Afghanistan, which would be a terrible moral and strategic error.
This isn’t about nation-building but rather a matter of national security. The Trump administration must hold firm to a conditions-based approach to this deal. If the Taliban lives up to its word, the United States should do the same. If the Taliban breaks its word, which is increasingly likely in the second half of the deal’s implementation, Trump or his successor must be ready to return some U.S. forces to Afghanistan and exert renewed military pressure on Taliban forces.
As structured, the deal holds the U.S. to a sharp timeline for troop draw-downs. The United States is pledged to reduce its force level to 8,600 over the coming 135 days. But, if the Taliban conforms with its own obligations to suspend attacks and obstruct external terrorist groups such as al Qaeda, the United States will follow through, withdrawing all its forces over the next 9½ months.
It is possible that the Taliban and its allies will abide by their obligations in the second half of this agreement. But there’s reason to fear that the Taliban will eventually launch a campaign of limited but steadily escalating violence against the Afghan government.
The Taliban is a keen strategist and will want to maximize its leverage for the moment the last U.S. soldier leaves Afghanistan. That will become a critical issue if the Trump administration or its successor refuses to alter the withdrawal timetable, even if the Taliban breaks its word. With U.S. popular opinion increasingly opposed to our continuing presence, there’s a risk that political expediency will take precedence over what is best for national security. And there are two risks in that premature approach.
First, it would allow the Taliban to realign with its ideological partners, al Qaeda. If the Taliban is able to provide Osama bin Laden’s group or other jihadists a safe haven, it will do so. Then, we will be back where we were in the months preceding Sept. 11. That would be an intolerably idiotic dereliction of duty.
A premature withdrawal would also jeopardize the Afghan government. That would be a moral stain for the United States to give the Taliban space to defeat the government.
The risk of that outcome is that the Afghan people and democratic government would be subsumed by a fanatically anti-American regime.
Trump must learn from President Barack Obama’s mistake. Although popular with voters, Obama’s withdrawal from Iraq led directly to an Iranian sectarian agenda ruling in Baghdad on the one hand and ISIS’s bloody caliphate on the other.The lesson: Any peace favorable to U.S. interests will require more than words. It will require an attention to circumstances and a dedication to national interests.
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