I’ve irritated more than a few Republicans, so it’s time I did the same to some Democrats.
I am about to explain how an incumbent president who has never reached 50% approval in polling can win his reelection. First, you forget that a candidate can lose the popular vote by up to 5 million votes and still sit in the White House. It’s all about the Electoral College. Forget that and you can kiss a Democratic win goodbye come November. A viable candidate can win the same states Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 and will lose if he or she cannot win back swing states she lost to Trump. That is what it all boils down to. The only exception is if the Democrat carries Texas. Without the Lone Star State, no Republican can win without taking some traditionally blue states. Since it is, for now, unlikely a Democrat carries Texas, it boils down to a candidate who can win back the key states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. That is, of course, if the Democratic candidate holds all the states Clinton carried.
I am going to let you in on a secret that everyone already knows except for a large segment of the Democratic Party. The surest means of reelecting the current president is to nominate Bernie Sanders. I mean no offense to Sanders’ supporters, but there is no way in Hades your guy will win those three states; it’s not going to happen no matter how much you wistfully think otherwise. In fact, there is no guarantee Bernie Sanders can hold every state Clinton carried four years ago. I would even be willing to bet that he won’t if he’s the Democrats’ nominee.
There is an old political adage that bears minding: “When Democrats come out to vote, they win.” Republican voting numbers are pretty consistent, while the Democratic numbers are up and down like a bungee jumper. A Sanders nomination may, as his supporters claim, bring in voters who don’t generally vote, but I will guarantee you that an even larger number of voters will turn away from him.
Allow me to remind you also of a political truism: Extremist candidates do not win the presidency. The last GOP extremist who tried, Barry Goldwater, lost in a landslide. The last Democratic extremist, George McGovern, also lost in a landslide. Before you claim Trump was an exception, let me remind you voters do not consider him an extremist; a narcissistic, lying, authoritarian-leaning demagogue, yes, but not a political extremist. The 2016 Republican candidate who was an extremist was Sen. Ted Cruz, and I assure you that he, too, would have lost in a landslide.
Recent polling reveals that Americans are far more likely to vote for a Muslim or a gay person before voting for a socialist. A “never Trump” Republican pundit said it best: In America, “any time you run a socialist against a sociopath, the sociopath wins every time.” If Sanders receives the nomination, the two most-often-voiced words in the race will be “Venezuela” and “socialism.” The fact that Sanders is a democratic socialist in the manner of, say, Scandinavians, rather than an authoritarian socialist like Maduro, will not matter. The tag will stick, and it will cost the Democrats not only a shot at the White House, but a shot at becoming the majority party in the U.S. Senate. It would also deeply damage the odds of the Democrats holding on to the House.
You may, in your heart, believe in Bernie Sanders, but if your head tells you beating Trump is more important, take heed of your head.
Michael Adkins formerly was chair of the Hancock County Democratic Party. Send comments to [email protected].
