Cathedral (9-2) at New Palestine (11-0)
Kickoff: 7 p.m.
Coaches: Bill Peebles, 15-8 in 2nd year at Cathedral, 89-73 in 15th year overall. Kyle Ralph, 85-4 in 7th year at New Palestine.
Recent history: The teams have met twice before, both times in a regional. New Palestine won in 1987, 29-28, and Cathedral won in 2009, 45-6.
Sagarin ratings: New Palestine, 96.41, 6th overall, 1st in 5A. Cathedral, 96.38, 7th overall, 2nd in 5A.
Players to watch: New Palestine — QB Lincoln Roth, RB Charlie Spegal, OL/DL Kyle King, OL/DL Matt Brown, LB Aven Jones, DB/WR Maxen Hook, WR Blake Austin; Cathedral — QB Orin Edwards, RB Daylen Hall, RB Jake Langdon, WR Camden Jordan, WR David Perry, FS Shiloh Means, DB Mario McCullough
What to look for: This is a game that many people have been waiting two years for, and it is likely to live up to expectations. Don’t be fooled by Cathedral’s two losses – they came against two powerhouse teams out of Cincinnati, Elder and St. Xavier, by a combined 11 points. To say the Irish are battle-tested is an understatement, as they have statement wins against Trinity (one of Kentucky’s elite teams), along with topping Center Grove and handing Chatard its only loss of the season. Cathedral has one of the more dangerous passing attacks the Dragons will have seen in recent years, with senior QB Orin Edwards leading the way with a talented receiving duo of Camden Jordan and David Perry. The Irish can run the ball effectively, too, having a nearly balanced offense with 180 passing and 199 rushing yards per game. The Dragons, meanwhile, haven’t lost in over two years and are the defending state champions. A few teams have temporarily slowed the New Palestine offense, but nobody has stopped them this year, and most haven’t even come close. This game will come down to defense. The Red Rage has been phenomenal for most of the year, despite facing all sorts of unique offenses and schemes. Cathedral’s defense hasn’t been quite as dominant, but the Irish made a big statement in last week’s blowout of Decatur Central, holding a very talented Hawks running attack to just 61 yards on 25 carries. This will be close, and could come down to the final possession. With home-field advantage and the likely Mr. Football front-runner leading the way, look for the Dragons to prevail and be big favorites in the semi-state round.
Scouting the other Class 5A regionals
North
Valparaiso (11-0) at Mishawaka (8-3)
Sagarin ratings: Valparaiso, 93.4, 13th overall, 3rd in 5A. Mishawaka, 79.54, 31st overall, 7th in 5A.
What to look for: Valparaiso, new to Class 5A this year after dropping down from 6A, looks like the favorite in the North side of the state bracket. They beat a team New Palestine is familiar with, Michigan City, 42-21 earlier this season. The Vikings have also topped a 6A regional team, Merrillville, this year, the only loss this season for the Pirates. Valpo has the No. 2 offense and No. 3 defense in 5A and are led by junior running back Tommy Burbee, who is averaging 7.4 yards per carry and has 18 TDs this year. Valparaiso should win by several scores to advance to semistate, a game they would host regardless of opponent.
Fort Wayne Dwenger (10-1) at Harrison (9-2)
Sagarin ratings: Bishop Dwenger, 85.49, 20th overall, 4th in 5A. Harrison, 80.11, 27th overall, 6th in 5A.
What to look for: Dwenger, the defending 4A champions, haven’t missed a beat since moving up to 5A, with their only loss coming to undefeated Homestead, who is in the 6A regional round tonight. Harrison has two lopsided losses, but both were to 6A competition. Dwenger’s defense has been fantastic this year, allowing less than 7.5 points per game, good for fifth best in the state regardless of class. Their offense is balanced but not particularly high-scoring. Harrison will look to control the tempo with the fantastic running duo of Omarion Dixon (1,563 yards, 17 TD) and Marcel Atisso (971 yards, 12 TD). The Dwenger defense against the Harrison offense will likely be a stalemate, so the key will be how well Harrison’s defense – not as strong as a year ago – can slow down Dwenger. Expect the 5A newcomers to get through this one, but it will be close.
South
Floyd Central (9-2) at Bloomington South (7-4)
Sagarin ratings: Bloomington South, 73.97, 49th overall, 11th in 5A. Floyd Central, 56.16, 111th overall, 22nd in 5A.
What to look for: These are two difficult teams to figure out, both with blowout losses to very strong competition (Floyd lost 42-13 to Louisville Male; South lost 49-7 to 3A powerhouse Chatard) and losses against 6A teams from Columbus (Floyd 41-14 to East and South 15-9 against North). Strength of schedule is the best differentiator between the two, as South played a significantly harder slate than Floyd’s 182nd-ranked schedule, by far the easiest among all 5A teams. Both teams prefer to run the ball, which gives Bloomington South the advantage thanks to a Top 10 defense in 5A that gets into the backfield a lot, with 54 tackles for loss and 26 sacks on the year. This might be close early, but look for South to pull away and win by a comfortable margin, setting up a meeting at either New Palestine or Cathedral in the semistate.