Michael Adkins
With an unpopular President and the highest inflation in four decades, the Red Wave was inevitable, until it was not. Women, young voters and Donald Trump stopped the Red Wave, and America came to its senses. Most of the election deniers and followers of the Big Lie went down in defeat as voters said yes to democracy and democratic norms. At the time of this writing, neither side has claimed control of the House of Representatives but it appears the GOP will choose a new Speaker with a majority even narrower than that held by the Democrats prior to the election. The GOP could even control the Senate, though it appears unlikely at this time. In spite of their gains, the GOP acts as though it received a swift kick in the pants, and rightly so.
Both political parties can gain valuable foresight by taking a very close and thoughtful review of just what happened.
First and foremost, women, angry over the Dobbs decision, voted overwhelmingly against Republican candidates and their anti-abortion measures. Democrats in Michigan, where voters said the abortion issue was first on their minds, won all Statehouse offices and took control of both legislative bodies. Four states rejected the anti-abortion bills brought forth by eager Republicans. Pundits thought the flames of pro-choice ire had been reduced to smoke. They were very wrong. Abortion was the number one issue of 27% of the voters, mostly women, and 75% of them rejected Republican candidates. Should Republicans continue to pursue legislation to ban or severely limit abortions, the party is bound to suffer further defeat. Women have turned every election since 1980. They are more likely to register and vote than are men, making them a formidable force in American politics.
Another huge surprise to pundits was the impact of young voters, particularly Gen Z. The youth vote is traditionally unpredictable. Sometimes they show up at the polls, sometimes not. In 2022, their turnout was much greater than anticipated. Should that be the case in 2024 and beyond, it won’t be a trend favorable to the GOP.
And now we come to the Trump factor. MAGA Republicans did poorer than expected and the GOP is placing its party’s disappointments squarely on the ex-President. Larry Sabato, head of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, summed up the midterms with “Abortion and Donald Trump not leaving the stage” as the primary causes of GOP disappointment. By making the election all about himself, voters had someone they like less than Joe Biden to be the target of their anger. By continuing his 2020 Big Lie, he made protecting American Democracy a bigger focus than it might otherwise have been.
To be sure, the Democratic Party did little to stem the tide. As usual, they allowed the GOP to frame the issues. The GOP issues simply backfired. As usual, the Democratic Party sucked at messaging. If the Big Tent party ever gets it together and formulates clear, unified messaging that speaks to all voters, the GOP will be in deep trouble. The problem for Democrats is to find a unified message to working-class whites.
But it is the GOP now facing internecine warfare. Donald Trump is the face of the battle. While Republicans wish he would “shut up” and go away, he retains a large bloc of ardent supporters, with over 30% of the GOP. He can do more damage to Republicans than they can do to him, and the odds are on his further attacking the GOP, especially if he fails to get the 2024 nomination. Even without him, Trumpism remains a large part of Republican politics. The Party must be mindful of not replacing Trump with a wannabe.
Michael Adkins is a former Chair of the local Democratic Party.
