Michael Adkins
How might the war between Ukraine and Russia end? That is the proverbial $64,000 question. Russia can only win by perseverance, playing the long game or a negotiated settlement. Putin now realizes he cannot simply overwhelm his enemy’s forces. He hopes that attacking civilians will weaken Ukraine’s resolve. Short of that, his only other means of winning is for the West to lose its resolve and abandon Ukraine in its time of crisis. The latter is a possibility.
Europe’s unity is weakening, thanks in part to Russia’s energy war on the West, and in part, because of his threats to use nuclear weapons. Germany is calling for a ceasefire, but that would only delay the end of the war. France is seeking a negotiated peace that will allow Putin to save face. Italy is promoting a plan for peace in Ukraine.
There are multiple conflicting issues for a negotiated settlement. Some Europe nations would be happier if Putin’s Russia is made to pay for its aggression. Further, which boundaries would Ukraine and Russia be willing to settle upon. Ukraine may settle for a return to its borders of February 24, 2022, when the invasion began, but its preference would be to include the return of Crimea. Neither option is likely acceptable to Putin which leaves only allowing Russia to keep its “annexed” regions. The Ukrainian people would not be happy to bow to Putin and make such an appeasement.
I suspect the only way President Zelensky and his people would accept allowing Russian control of the areas Putin has gained, is for the United States and its NATO allies to firmly commit to Ukraine’s future protection. This could include NATO membership, but Putin’s head would explode if it came to that. Therefore, a multi-national treaty, with no mention of Ukraine, would be the more likely way forward.
One important factor to consider is that it is, in the words of Estonia’s Prime Minister, “more dangerous giving in to Putin than provoking him.” Ukraine and the West’s backing down to Putin places other European nations at risk of aggressive land grabs. Putin can continue his bullying posturing, but he knows all too well that NATO forces could make short work of Russia’s military. Only if Vladimir Putin and his supporters are willing to totally destroy their homeland can they use nuclear weapons, even tactical nukes.
Will the West continue its financial and military support of Ukraine? The answer, most likely rests with the United States. President Biden has made it crystal clear that the United States is firmly committed in its support. However, Congressional Republicans are divided in their support. Many within the Trump wing of the GOP have already made clear their intent to end America’s support. You have likely already seen the nationally aired ad which calls for the end of that support. Mitch McConnell, assuming he continues holding the reins of GOP Senators, will fight to continue the Ukrainian support. However, a battle is likely to be fought within the House of Representative between traditional conservative Republicans and those I call the crazy wing of the party.
It is almost unimaginable to me, knowing the past history of the Republican Party, that it could find itself in such a divide. Known for its anti-communist commitment and stalwart defense against the Soviet Union, a sizable segment of the GOP is now in Putin’s corner. Former President Trump and Fox News’ Tucker Carlson were Putin cheerleaders until the invasion. Now they push for conciliation with Russia. Which side of the Republican divide comes out ahead may very well determine the fate of Ukraine.
Michael Adkins formerly was chair of the Hancock County Democratic Party. Send comments to [email protected].
