Morton Marcus: Maybe next generations will learn from history

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Morton Marcus

Public health officials tell us our social distance, our sequestration, must continue long after the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic is reached. Elected public officials who are smart tell us to listen to the public health officials.

But America is suffering from AI. Not the computer version where machines are programmed to learn. No! Our current AI is Artificial Intelligence based on Arrogant Ignorance. Those with this AI talk about “getting our economy rolling soon, returning to normal,” whatever that means.

Part of the problem is that early in the coverage of COVID-19 misleading graphics were posted on TV, on social media, and in our newspapers. We saw graphs of the pandemic as an ordinary bell-shaped curve where the number of cases would rise dramatically, peak, and then fall just as dramatically.

That’s not how it works. Yes, there is that sudden rise and a peak, but the downside can be extended out, at continuing high rates, over a greater period of time.

The downside of this epidemic is not a quick return to normal. If we do not continue to self-separate, the downside is likely to have several new significant outbreaks, and the duration of the epidemic will be prolonged.

There is no question about it: America was not prepared for this epidemic. The problem was AI manifested itself as an inability and unwillingness to respond to information as it became known. From the White House down to your house and mine, as the information about China developed, we did not respond.

Why not? Because we’ve had no experience with a crisis of this magnitude. COVID-19 could be more of a pandemic than the influenza of 1918. Nearly every one of us is a descendant of those who survived that 20th century flu.

However, our forebears did not teach us about that calamity. Most importantly, the institutions and procedures they did leave (like the CDC and state health departments) were unable to overcome AI in high places.

Even now, as we imagine an economic recovery, we are in the dark. This experience is not the collapse of 1929, nor is it the economic meltdown of 2008. We will have to innovate on an unprecedented scale.

When there is a flood, we build walls in hopes of preventing the damage of the next flood. Hurricanes, tornadoes and earthquakes teach us to build stronger structures and establish more demanding building codes.

However, with matters of health, we fail to remember previous crisis situations. We rely on the happenstance of scientific ingenuity to discover preventive and curative measures.

We could, however, learn to support basic research adequately. We could develop applied research independent of the tides of profitability. What will we leave our children and grandchildren as institutions and procedures to meet the next pandemic?

Morton Marcus is an economist. Reach him at [email protected]. Follow his views and those of John Guy on “Who gets what?” wherever podcasts are available or at mortonjohn.libsyn.com. Send comments to dr-editorial@green fieldreporter.com.